Job Openings Fall But Hiring Outlook Remains Stable

Jobs, Skills and Training

Despite the positive jobs report last week, a number of key U.S. labor market indicators continue to soften.  The latest Federal Reserve Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) fell 1.9 points into recession territory in June, its sixth consecutive monthly decline, and the BLS reported the number of Job openings fell in May and remains below its July 2015 level.  The job opening rate has also not improved over the past year after tying its record high in July 2015, as the number of job openings declined in most major industries except for retail trade and professional and technical services.  Separately, the Conference Board also reported the number of online advertised vacancies decreased in June, and is down almost 22 percent from November 2015.  The weakening job opening data and continuing drop in the LMCI makes it less likely the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at its July 26-27 meeting.  Meanwhile, the latest ManpowerGroup employment outlook survey found U.S. hiring prospects remain relatively stable for the third quarter of 2016, and 6th best globally.  India, Japan, and Taiwan have the best third quarter hiring outlooks, while Brazil, Switzerland and Italy have the worst.