Immigration Reform May Fall to Obama Now

Immigration

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's surprising loss in his Virginia primary election this week has sparked intense speculation about the future of immigration reform in Congress and may prompt President Obama to act unilaterally to slow deportations through an executive order.  Reform supporters note that polls indicate Cantor's support for immigration reform (lukewarm at best) was not a factor in the election.  A poll conducted on Tuesday for the liberal advocacy group Americans United for Change found that 72 percent of voters in Cantor's district either "strongly," or "somewhat" support broad immigration reform, including legal status for undocumented immigrants.  A second poll, released Wednesday by the advocacy group Americans for a Conservative Direction, found that of those who voted for Cantor's opponent Dave Bratt, only 22 percent cited immigration as a reason for their vote, while a majority said they saw Cantor as "too focused on national politics instead of local needs," and having "lost touch with voters."  In contrast to Cantor, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC), both strong supporters of immigration reform, easily sailed through their recent primaries.  Still, Bratt's victory and its apparent affirmation of the Tea Party's continuing potency, has reportedly caused concerns among many House Republicans who may otherwise have voted for immigration reform.  Unfortunately, there is not much time for them to decide how to proceed—immigration reform only had a narrow window to pass before the July 4th recess—and with the House Republican leadership in flux, it will be difficult for a bill to squeak through this summer.  Unilateral action by the President is appearing more probable than ever.  Hispanic groups have been ratcheting up pressure on him to take action on immigration reform, and unless a deal emerges, it is likely the President will issue an executive order of some kind by the end of the summer.