Commentary: Trump and Global Labour Relations

The outgoing U.S. President, Joe Biden described himself as the most “pro-union” President in history. To prove the point, he went beyond rhetoric and walked the UAW picket line during their strike against the big three US auto makers and met with union leaders at both Amazon and Starbucks. 

Incoming President-elect Trump may not be a fan of organized labour, but his election victory was in no small part due to his “pro American worker” positioning. Fundamental to his “Make America Great Again” message is the creation of jobs and wealth in the United States. Trump has told American auto workers he will be their saviour through trade tariffs and at the same time called the UAW leader Shaun Fain, a “stupid person.”

Biden’s support for American workers was to back unions and workers’ rights, and as a consequence, make the US a more expensive place to employ workers, as employers see it, though we know that there are many on the union side who would dispute this contention.

Trump’s support for American workers is based on actions that reduce the burdens on companies and at the same time make foreign made goods more expensive, and uncompetitive. Trump realizes that well paid and protected American workers will still buy Chinese cars if their price and quality are better than the US offering. 

Economists will rightly say that tariffs are a tax on US consumers and may drive up inflation, but workers in protected industries will not see it that way. 

We have argued this for a long time, but Trump sets the issue out clearly that being pro worker is not the same thing as being pro union. He also “gets it” that people make different decisions as workers than they do as consumers.

Whilst it is tempting, we don’t think it is wise for Europeans to comment on what a Trump administration may mean for labour relations in the US. For us Europeans it is “labour,” not “labor” and the influence of that missing “u” cannot be overstated. What we can do, however, is to predict what a Trump administration will mean for the practice of labour relations outside of the United States. 

The tariff agenda is simple. Make American goods more affordable than their foreign equivalents. Let’s set aside the complex issue of what that does to the world economy and the impact on workers in Europe, China, and the global South. A new world trade order at odds with the exponential rise of globalization since 1990 will get plenty of airplay elsewhere.

On labor and foreign policy, whilst the Trump team is unlikely to make union organizing in the United States easier than it currently is, they will continue to support the right to organize elsewhere in the world. This may sound like “do as I say, not as I do” but consistency has never been Trump’s strong suit. Put simply, raising the costs of doing business elsewhere in the world plays a role in making American Great (Competitive) Again without pushing up labor costs at home. He will therefore continue to support foreign policy initiatives like the USMCA that supports collective bargaining in Mexico. 

If you go onto LinkedIn, you will find posts about Team Biden engaging in multiple countries in the “Global South” promoting union organising, collective bargaining, and international labour standards. Here Trump is neither driven, nor encumbered, by ideology or by making the world a better place. He will selectively pursue opportunistic decisions that make America a better place. If he understands the global consequences of this, he doesn’t care.

 What role will the US play in the ILO and other global forums over the next four years? If the ILO, or any other similar body makes decisions that criticize the MAGA agenda, and they will, he might simply pull the plug on their funding. Without US support the global infrastructure is not financially viable. He who pays the piper…. 

How will the incoming administration react to EU legislation that imposes significant burdens on US companies, such as the Directives on due diligence? Here is where it gets difficult. Trump will only care when this affects the US interests of companies. World business leaders see it differently. The biggest companies in the United States care a lot about global stability, freedom of trade, movement of capital and movement of people. Many of them make far more money outside the US than in it. Trump simply wants them to recognize that they are American first and foremost… and this is where the rubber hits the road. The ride may get bumpy. 

At the time of writing, it looks like the Republicans have an electoral clean sweep, the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The Supreme Court is already a Republican court. 

With that political control, as we suggest in these quick, initial thoughts, the labour relations implications of the 49^th Presidency go way beyond the borders of the United States. 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

HR Policy Global - Europe will have a session on what Trump II means for labour relations both in the US and elsewhere at our meeting in Brussels in February Tues 4 + Wed 5. Registration opens next week.