December 08, 2017
With the issue of the Republic of Ireland's border with the UK apparently resolved, the UK now looks toward phase two of the negotiations, which promises challenges for UK leadership that may be insurmountable. Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive and Chief Economist of the European Policy Centre, writes in BEERG's Global Labor Newsletter, "There is no guarantee that any agreement reached with the UK government will hold up in domestic politics... the UK government is caught between economic and political impossibilities regarding the long-term EU-UK relationship." Because details of a proposal from the UK government have not materialized, negotiators will likely be forced to model existing agreements such as Norway and Canada's respective trade agreements with the EU. The problem is that these models contain elements that would be unpalatable from certain essential economic or political perspectives, if not both. BEERG Executive Director Tom Hayes writes in the Brexit Blog, "The UK government has put itself in a position where it cannot meet the expectations of all those involved in the Brexit process. Cut a deal with the EU on the terms offered by the EU and a significant part of the Conservative/Brexiter/DUP coalition will be outraged. Keep the coalition together and there will be no deal with the EU and the UK will exit the EU without any agreement as to future trading arrangements. Business will be outraged." Read the full BEERG Newsletter. Read the most recent BEERG Brexit briefing.